10:00 Jan Wholesale Inventories (last -0.8%)
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 Treasury's $21B 10-yr note auction
14:00 Feb Monthly Budget Statement (last -$42.6B)
Today’s Headlines
5:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 469K V 470KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.50M V 4.60ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 496K to 498K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 4.617M to 4.63M
4:00:37 AM
(CZ) Czech Central Bank Feb inflation seen below forecasts due lower adjusted inflation, excluding fuel prices
***Reminder: Czech CPI data was released earlier today and came in below expectations in both the MoM and YOY (see our 3;00 headline)
4:12:21 AM
(PD) Poland Central Bank Bratkowski: Poland Interest rates will likely remain unchanged in 2010
- Rate Panel should consider the Zloty currency more when conducting policy
- Forecasts 2010 GDP gorwth seen between 2.0% to 2.5%
-Earlier today Central Bank Gov Skrzypek commented that the: Monetary policy bias remained neutral (see our 4:37 headline)
4:34:14 AM
(US) NFIB: Small business continues to not spend on CAPEX at this time - CNBC
- Need to see consumer come back to ramp up sales
- Borrowing remains low as turnover levels do not call for further investment
5:00:39 AM
(EU) ECB's Weber: Does not think much on EMF plan; Euro Zone needs the power to correct deficits if plan creates more pressure on budgets
- Believes it is unhelpful to discuss creating new Euro Zone institutions, need to make existing Euro Zone framework more credible.
- Unclear whether the CDS market needs to be restricted.
- May impose bigger haircuts on lower-rated debt.
10:01:44 AM
*(US) TREASURY'S $40B 3-YEAR NOTES DRAW 1.437%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 3.13 V 2.83 PRIOR AND 2.89 AVG OVER THE LAST 10 AUCTIONS
- Indirect bidders take 51.9% of competitive bids, direct bidders take 10.3% of competitive bids, primary dealers take 37.8%
- 15.66% allotted at high
- Median 1.403%; Low 1.34%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
(PO) Portugal austerity guidelines of the stability and growth pact update for 2010-2013: Indicates Portugal could cut deficit-to-GDP ratio to 2.8% by 2013, from 8.3% in 2010 - Draft budget
- Gov't see budget deficit of 6.6% in 2011 and at 4.7% in 2012
- Forecasts 2011 GDP growth at 0.9%; at 1.35 in 2012 and up 1.7% in 2013
3:16:17 AM
(EU) EU Commission: Ready to propose a European Monetary Fund (EMF); No details provided
- Support mechanism to have rigorous conditionality.
- Currently preparing support mechanism for Greece.
- Ready to act to improve economic governance of Euro Zone.
3:42:10 AM
Fitch revises Lithuania outlook to Stable from Negative; affirms BBB rating
- States: Although the fiscal deficit remains high, consolidation measures enacted to date have been substantial and the government has articulated a credible medium-term plan for reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2012
7:00:45 AM
(US) New York Fed to expand number of firms participating in reverse repo facility; warns no inferences should be drawn regarding monetary policy
- The New York Fed requires firms having net assets of no less than $20B for six consecutive months prior to applying as a reverse repo counterparty.
7:46:04 AM
ECB's Stark: A European IMF style institution would be against the rules of the EMU; could create false incentives and place burden on some countries
- highlights that a European monetary fund would allow countries with weak finances to continue poor policies.
- creation of such a fund could harm the acceptance of the Euro.
- feels reforms of stability and growth agreements is the better way forward, with penalties for countries who break deficit rules.
9:00:38 AM
(UK) BoE's Barker: Cannot be confident in the pace of the recovery in the UK quite yet; exports are showing a disappointing reaction to weak sterling
- Extending QE may not boost asset prices further. Asset prices have not risen too high as of yet.
- There are grounds for optimism in recent economic data.
- Believes there are "risks" in driving economic growth too high in the near term.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
March 05, 2010
Busy Friday! Dollar Index Correlation saved us today!
“All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make the better.”
Market Week Wrap-up
- Equity indices gapped lower this week in the face of growing risk aversion, with traders disregarding robust corporate earnings and a strong first reading of US GDP. The Shanghai Composite dropped below 3,000 for the first time since late 2008, while the DJIA closed within 44 points of 10,000 and commodities traded off hard. On Friday, advance GDP showed the US economy grew faster than expected in Q4, at an annualized rate of 5.4%. If the GDP reading holds up upon revision, GDP in the final quarter of 2009 would be higher than at any time since September 2003. Housing data was mixed: the November S&P/CS index gained for the sixth consecutive month, although the move up was modest. Meanwhile, December new home sales fell nearly 8% m/m (following an 11% m/m decline in November), prompting Yale Economist Robert Shiller to reiterate that he believes home prices could be faltering yet again. President Obama gave his first State of the Union speech on Wednesday, offering a trenchant defense of his first year in office while also admitting certain mistakes had been made. The President promised to double US exports over the next five years and make job creation a primary focus, and also said $30B in repaid TARP funding would be redirect to loans for small businesses. Ahead of the speech, the Congressional Budget Office released predictions for a $1.35T deficit for this year as the economy continues to slowly recover from the recession. After a flurry of Washington drama last week (full of implicit threats to Fed policy independence), the Senate handed Ben Bernanke a second term as Fed chairman in a 70 to 30 vote. For the week, the DJIA lost 1.1%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.6% and the S&P 500 fell 1.7%.
- Clarity on the Greek debt situation, incremental improvements in the US employment picture and other positive economic data kept markets moving in the right direction all week long. The US Feb ISM non-manufacturing index hit its highest level since Oct 2007, February same-store sales and auto sales figures were relatively strong, and January consumer credit figures registered their first increase in 12 months. In another sign that companies are raising output without adding many jobs, productivity rose sharply in Q4. Unsurprisingly, the January pending home sales data followed in the footsteps of several recent housing numbers to the downside. Friday's Feb employment reports showed that annualized unemployment held steady at 9.7%. Non-farm payrolls nearly turned positive despite fears last month's blizzards would white out over 100K jobs. Administration officials made the rounds after the data were released, insisting that the numbers would have been even stronger if not for the dire weather in February. Ultrahawk Fed Governor Fisher said the US is far away from a pickup in hiring and said he expects unemployment rate to remain around 10% for a while. As expected, President Obama said the Democrats would push healthcare reform through the Senate using budget reconciliation rules, formally launching the "nuclear option." Speculation about an overheating Chinese economy was in the background all week. US press articles discussed whether the country is facing a real estate bubble or not, while government and PBoC officials all insisted that inflation would not get out of hand this year. Nearly everything went right for investors, and sharpening risk appetite pushed the Nasdaq out to a 52-week high by Friday afternoon, while the DJIA gained triple digits. For the week, the Nasdaq rose 3.9%, the DJIA increased 2.3%, and the S&P500 climbed 3.1%.
- Merger activity continued at a healthy clip this week, with a concentration in the pharmaceutical sector. Japanese drugmaker Astellas launched a $3.5B hostile takeover offer for OSI Pharmaceuticals, bidding $52 a share in cash, and Germany's Merck KGaA snapped up biotech supplier Millipore for around $6B in cash, at $107/share. Biotechs Geron and Cephalon, which are often the subject of market rumors, were mentioned as potential targets.
- The headline M&A deal of the week was AIG's agreement to sell its AIA unit to the UK's Prudential for $35.5B. Deals involving private equity funds are picking up again as well, indicating a broad return to health in credit markets. Elliott Associates offered $5.75/share in cash for enterprise software developer Novell, for a total transaction value of $1B. ABRY Partners signed a deal to acquire telecom services firm RCN Corporation at $15/shr, for a total of $1.2B in cash and debt. In other M&A news, CF Industries upped its offer for Terra, topping an firm offer from Norway's Yara International made in mid February. Note that Terra's board had already agreed to Yara's deal, after rebuffing CF for months. Later in the week there were reports Agrium might be mulling a fresh offer for CF, although the reports indicated that the firm would hold off until CF resolved its hostile bid for Terra.
- Retailers released another set of strong same-store sales figures, with February comps appearing even better than relatively positive showings in December and January. Shoppers were apparently not put off by the terrible weather seen in the month, providing more hope for a gradual recovery in consumer spending. Nearly every major apparel name beat expectations. Impressive outperformance was seen from former laggards Abercrombie and Zumiez. Department store names were more in line with expectations, with more misses, including high-end name Saks, which had delivered strong outperformance in the last two months. Monthly sales numbers from auto companies were also relatively strong, with Ford's sales a remarkable 43% above last year's levels (keeping in mind the state of the auto industry last February). In addition, Ford reported higher total monthly sales than GM for the first time since 1998. On Friday, GM said it would reinstate up to 1,000 dealerships that were dropped during the company's bankruptcy process last year.
- Corporate earnings were not a significant factor this week, although there were a few notable reports. Homebuilder Hovnanian reported its first quarterly profit since late 2006, thanks largely to a big income tax benefit. Like the rest of the industry, declines in Hovnanian's backlog are much smaller than a few quarters ago, while the cancellation rate is falling sharply. Home furnishings name Ethan Allen complimented the news out of Hovnanian, noting that orders for the first two months of 2010 are up an impressive 25% y/y. Mining equipment manufacturer Joy Global roundly beat expectations on a big gain in new orders and tightened up its 2010 guidance. According to executives, although the rate of growth in commodity imports into China has begun to moderate, imports are expected to remain near their current high levels. Staples's Q4 results were largely in line with expectations. Executives at the firm expect the US economy to remain more or less the same and are not projecting any dramatic improvements.
- Greece finally issued €5B worth of 10-year bonds this week, and reliable reports of healthy demand for the paper allowed nervous investors in debt, currency and equity markets alike to rest easy, at least temporarily. The issuance came hot on the heels of a €4.8B austerity package from the Greek government, which was widely applauded by officials across Europe. Moody's said the austerity measures would provide some certainty for 2010, but implementation was questionable in subsequent years. Although things are looking a little rosier for Greece's fiscal situation, protestors took to the streets all week in the capital, which may test the resolve of the government going forward.
- The market still estimates that Greece needs to raise somewhere in the vicinity of €20B by May simply to pay the interest on and to refinance existing debt. But the German government, for obvious reasons, remains steadfastly opposed to a bailout. Following the austerity package, Greek PM Papandreou upped the ante by threatening to seek help from the IMF - an outcome which would ultimately deal a monumental blow to the credibility of the European Union and common currency (two projects championed by Germany and France). As it stands a debt guarantee (as opposed to direct monetary assistance) is shaping up as the outcome most acceptable to both parties. As the week drew to a close the streets of Athens were stilled filled with protestors, and rumors that Greece is set to downgrade its GDP forecasts (effectively worsening its debt burden at the stroke of a pen) refuse to go away.
- The European peripheral situation remained the catalyst for price action in currencies this week. Greece's austerity package and the negative reaction to it among Greek unions initially sent the euro to nine-month lows below 1.3450. Overall EUR/USD maintained its familiar range between 1.3450 and 1.3730, with stops probed at either end. There were no surprises in the BoE and ECB interest rate decisions on Thursday morning, with both central banks leaving policy unchanged, as expected. The ECB press conference communicated that the decision to withdraw measures was made by overwhelming consensus and added that the decision was not a signal for rates. Trichet stated that the ECB would not pre-commit to more liquidity extensions and promised that the bank would lend out covered bonds purchased in its quantitative easing program. The reserve currency issue was lurking in the background, with talk focusing on gold reserves in the wake of last week's IMF gold dust up. Russian Central Banker Ulyukayev commented that Russia would increase the proportion of gold in its reserves. Data shows that gold makes up 5.3% of Russia's reserves, up from the 4.3% seen back in late November.
- Sterling was rattled by M&A flows and growing concerns that a hung parliament could emerge from the upcoming UK general elections. The pound was softer following announcement that Prudential (UK) would acquire AIA from AIG for $35.5B in cash and equity. GBP/USD hit fresh nine-month lows below 1.5000 level and EUR/GBP regained a foothold above the 0.9050 level in the wake of the announcement. With the election looming, the pound is at the mercy of various polls showing the Tory lead over Labour narrowing to as little as two percentage points, raising fears that neither party could win the decisive 10% margin over the other generally considered necessary for uncontested rule.
- The yen weakened in the latter part of the trading week. According to a draft of Japan's FY10/11 budget, the government may increase the borrowing limit for foreign exchange intervention (the last time this limit was raised was 2004). The draft budget suggests the foreign exchange special account's borrowing ceiling will be raised by more than ¥4.5T to ¥145T. Also weighing the JPY were interest rate factors, after three-month JPY Libor moved below the USD fixing on Thursday morning for the first time since Aug 2009. USD/JPY tested above the 90 level following the better US employment data on Friday.
- A report on Friday from Nikkei News suggested that Japan's central bank may consider expanding its liquidity program, helping the yen retreat from 3-month highs against USD seen on Thursday. Japanes Finance Minister Kan said he would welcome the move but conceded he has not heard anything specific from the BoJ. Kan also commented on recent yen trends, suggesting the gains since mid-February could be attributed to turmoil stemming from Greece and may subside going forward. The BoJ is expected to next meet on interest rates on March 16th.
- On Friday Chinese Premier Wen outlined performance target for the economy in 2010, in the equivalent of China's State of the Union address. Wen reaffirmed a GDP growth target of 8% and said CPI is expected at 3%, while targets for industrial production and M2 money supply growth were put at 11% and 17% respectively, with new loans expected to contract to CNY7.5T from CNY9.6T in 2009. Regarding currencies, Wen said exchange rate reform would continue to be improved in a way that would retain the basic stability of the yuan. On the fiscal front, China's Ministry of Finance said the budget deficit was expected at 2.8% of GDP in 2010 and below 3% in coming years. On the issue of the overheated housing sector, Wen noted the cabinet would "resolutely" curb housing price gains and speculative house purchases, promising to increase land supply for low and medium-cost housing. Banking regulator Liu also chimed in on the speculative housing bubble, stating that the pace of bank lending is more stable, and loan books of banks appear to be safer.
- After surprising some prognosticators last month by pausing its policy tightening campaign, Australia's RBA raised rates another 25bps to 4.00% on Monday. The RBA noted that growth in the global economy makes it appropriate for rates to be closer to average. In a notable deviation from last month's statement, the RBA omitted specific reference to China looking to reduce its stimulus, and also upgraded its assessment of resource sector investment to "very strong" from "strong." Tightening seemed justified a day later when the Australia government reported Q4 GDP strengthened at its highest rate since Q2 of 2008, rising on q/q basis by 0.9% and 2.7% y/y. On Wednesday, the country's January trade balance came in at a seven month high, at -A$1.2B v -A$1.6Be. On balance, shrinking import component was instrumental to the contraction, falling 3% m/m. Exports rose 1%, however exports to China as well as shipments of top 2 commodities--coal and iron ore--declined in value from prior month's levels.
Week of 3/8/2010 thru 3/12/2010
Monday, March 08, 2010
Economic
06:00 Brazil Feb Inflation, Chile Feb CPI
08:30 Canada Feb Housing Starts
10:00 Jan Wholesale Inventories (last -0.8%)
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 Treasury's $21B 10-yr note auction
14:00 Feb Monthly Budget Statement (last -$42.6B)
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Economic
07:00 Brazil Q4 GDP, Brazil Jan Retail Sales
08:30 Jan Trade Balance (last -$40.2B), Initial Jobless Claims (last 469K), Continuing Claims (last 4.50M), Canada
Jan Housing Price Index, Canada Q4 Capacity utilization
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 Treasury's $13B 30-yr note auction
Friday, March 12, 2010
Economic
07:00 Canada Feb Unemployment Rate
08:30 Fed Advance Retail Sales (last 0.5%, ex auto 0.6%),
09:55 March prelim Univ of Michigan confidence (last 73.6)
10:00 Dec Business Inventories (last -0.2%), Mexico Dec Industrial Production
14:00 Argentina Feb CPI
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Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Feb Nonfarm Payrolls (last -20K), Feb Unemployment Rate (last 9.7%), Feb Manufacturing Payrolls (last 11K), Feb Average Hourly Earnings (last m/m 0.2%, y/y 2.0%)
15:00 Jan Consumer Credit (last -$1.7B)
19:00 Chile Feb CPI
Today’s Headlines
5:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 469K V 470KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.50M V 4.60ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 496K to 498K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 4.617M to 4.63M
5:53:15 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Reiterates that Greece leaving EMU is an absurd idea; Greece's austerity decisions were very substantial and convincing - Q&A
- Notes that it is worth reiterating our statement on Greece: "we welcome the additional fiscal measures and envision swift implementation of the measures."
5:56:58 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Today's decision to withdraw measures was made by overwhelming consensus, decision is not a signal for rates
- Clarifies that the decision on interest rate stance was unanimous.
- IMF proposal that central banks should raise inflation targets is "plain wrong" and "dangerous."
6:39:26 AM
(GR) Greece Debt Agency Chief: Aiming to reach spread levels not much wider than Ireland's; not more than 10% of 10-year bond deal was placed in Greece
- Bond sale heavily skewed toward real money investors.
- Believes Greece is slowly regaining credibility.
7:15:23 AM
(US) Fed's Bullard: A larger monetary base has increased inflation risk; Fed must maintain a broad regulatory authority
- expansion of monetary base likely to be consistent
- quantitative easing should be comparable to interest rate policy
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Feb Nonfarm Payrolls (last -20K), Feb Unemployment Rate (last 9.7%), Feb Manufacturing Payrolls (last 11K), Feb Average Hourly Earnings (last m/m 0.2%, y/y 2.0%)
15:00 Jan Consumer Credit (last -$1.7B)
19:00 Chile Feb CPI
Today’s Headlines
5:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 469K V 470KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.50M V 4.60ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 496K to 498K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 4.617M to 4.63M
5:53:15 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Reiterates that Greece leaving EMU is an absurd idea; Greece's austerity decisions were very substantial and convincing - Q&A
- Notes that it is worth reiterating our statement on Greece: "we welcome the additional fiscal measures and envision swift implementation of the measures."
5:56:58 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Today's decision to withdraw measures was made by overwhelming consensus, decision is not a signal for rates
- Clarifies that the decision on interest rate stance was unanimous.
- IMF proposal that central banks should raise inflation targets is "plain wrong" and "dangerous."
6:39:26 AM
(GR) Greece Debt Agency Chief: Aiming to reach spread levels not much wider than Ireland's; not more than 10% of 10-year bond deal was placed in Greece
- Bond sale heavily skewed toward real money investors.
- Believes Greece is slowly regaining credibility.
7:15:23 AM
(US) Fed's Bullard: A larger monetary base has increased inflation risk; Fed must maintain a broad regulatory authority
- expansion of monetary base likely to be consistent
- quantitative easing should be comparable to interest rate policy
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 BoE rate decision, Brazil Jan Industrial Production
07:45 ECB rate decision
08:30 Final Q4 Nonfarm Productivity (last 6.2%), Q4 Unit Labor Costs (last -4.4%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 496K), Continuing Claims (last 4.617M)
10:00 Jan Pending Home Sales (last m/m 1.0%, y/y 10.5%), Jan Factory Orders (last 1.0%), Canada Feb Ivey PMI, Mexico Feb Consumer Confidence
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 Treasury note announcement
16:00 Colombia Feb PPI
Today’s Headlines
4:07:51 AM
(GR) Greece formally announces austerity measures of €4.8B (2% of GDP) - draft bill
- To increase VAT tax by 2% to 21%; will add €1.2B in revenues (0.5% of GDP)
- To raise €1B from a one-time company tax by end of 2010
- To raise duty on alcohol by 20%
- Further cuts in the government's wage bill (see €1.7B in savings)
4:39:26 AM
(GR) German Gov't spokesperson Steegmans: Will not offer aid to Greece during Friday's meeting between Chancellor Merkel and the GreekPM
- Meeting will only discuss current state of events
- Germany welcomes the Greek austerity measures announced earlier today and in line with talks
- Greece must implement austerity plans; confident that plan will stabilze the EUR.
5:36:55 AM
(US) Fed's Fisher: USD to remain reserve currency for some period of time; investor interest in USD forces discipline - Q&A at CFR
- Echoes that Fed should prevent asset bubbles
- Basel II has not worked as it did not capture risks in the system
- Fed in the early 2000's held rates too low for too long
6:00:41 AM
(GR) Greece Fin Min Papaconstantinou: To continue discussion with EU on financial aid
- Can not continue to borrow at current rates; reiterates Greece has no immediate need for new borrowing but monitoring markets for its next borrowing move
8:08:45 AM
(GR) Moody's: Austerity measures in Greece bring credibility to fiscal changes; measures consistent with A2 rating
** Note that Greece's sovereign debt carries an A2 rating at Moodys, two notches above the equivalent ratings at Fitch and S&P (BBB+).
-If Moody's were to recalibrate its rating in line with its peers it would render Greece's sovereign debt ineligible for ECB repo operations when collateral criteria reverts to the normal minimum thresholds (A3/A- or above) at the end of 2010
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:00 Brazil Jan Capacity Utilization
07:30 Feb Challenger Job Cuts y/y (last -70.4%)
08:15 Feb ADP Employment Change (last -22K)
10:00 Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing (last 50.5)
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 Mexico Feb Manufacturing Index, Non-Manufacturing Index
14:00 Fed Beige Book
Today’s Headlines
5:29:39 AM
(GR) Greece govt spokesman: Greece to announce austerity measures tomorrow (in line with market speculation)
***Reminder:
- On Monday EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn stated that Greece must reveal new measures in the coming days to allay officials concerns that the current austerity plan falls short
6:00:00 AM
*(CA) BANK OF CANADA LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED
- Drops language that inflation risks are tiling downwards;
- Pledge to keep steady rates through June will depend on inflation outlook
- Current outlook leaves room for April change
7:06:36 AM
Fed's Hoenig: Reaffirms Fed should not guarantee markets an 'extended period' of low rates; longer rates 'will take care of themselves' - CNBC interview
- feels that the Fed cannot go to 1% interest rate without causing issues, but believes the economy is strong enough to digest a 1% fed funds rate when it gets there
8:53:39 AM
(US) House Committee requests information related to claim denials by healthcare companies
- Asks CEOs from Humana, Aetna, Wellpoint and UnitedHealth to testify at 3/23 hearing.
****Reminder: On 2/24 HHS Secretary requested a March 3 meeting with CEOs of health insurers including WLP, UNH, CI, HUM and AET.
10:13:25 AM
(US) US Commerce Dept sets preliminary anti-subsidy duties of 4-13% on China, 17.5% on coated paper from Indonesia
- Notes still assessing whether to treat China's currency practices as a countervailing subsidy.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
09:00 BoC rate decision
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Today’s Headlines
5:10:03 AM
(US) Preview: Jan Personal Income, Spending and PCE data due at 8:30 am ET
- Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior.(Analyst range of estimates +0.2% to +0.6)
- Personal Spending: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior (Analyst range of estimates 0.2% to +0.6%)
5:30:02 AM
*(US) JAN PERSONAL INCOME 0.1% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.5% V 0.4%E
- Prior Personal Income revised lower from 0.4% to 0.3%
- Prior Personal Spending revised higher from 0.2% to 0.3%
6:48:31 AM
(US) Fed Vice Chair Kohn to resign from Board of Governors when term ends; effective June 23
- Kohn became a board member in 2002. Kohn's retirement will leave three open seats on the Fed's board.
- On June 23, 2006, Dr. Kohn was sworn in as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for a four-year term ending June 23, 2010.
- Kohn was born Nov 1942
7:00:03 AM
*(US) FEB ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX: 56.5 V 57.9E; PRICES PAID: 67 V 68.0 PRIOR
- No revisions
**sub-indices:
- New Orders Index: 59.5 v 65.9 prior
- Production index: 58.4 v 66.2 prior
- Employment Index: 56.1 v 53.3 prior
- Inventories index: 47.3 v 46.5 prior
8:06:25 AM
(US) Fed's Lacker: Inflation rate is 'low'; commercial real estate to be a GDP drag; risk for double dip recession 'fairly low'
- reiterates 'extended period' language is appropriate
- natural beginning for exit strategy is with asset sales
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Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
